Originally published on Bloomberg.com on July 10, 2023 as “Europe Can’t Supply Ukraine With Weapons Fast Enough, Here’s Why.”

Before, we had time, but no money,” said Tommy Gustafsson-Rask, head of BAE Systems Hägglunds AB, reflecting a common theme across Europe’s defense industry. “Today, we have money, but no time.”

Almost 18 months into the war in Ukraine, Europe’s defense contractors — flooded with demand for everything from ammunition to shoulder-launched missiles and combat vehicles — face a dilemma. Do they gamble on expanding production, assuming that the war and tensions with Russia will last indefinitely? Or hold back until they get long-term commitments from governments that have spent the past few decades shaving or even slashing their defense budgets?

The calculation matters beyond the corporate offices of Europe’s defense industry, which collectively generates about €120 billion a year in revenues. Ukraine urgently needs more weapons, from artillery ammunition to air defense systems, and allies’ stocks are running low. European capitals are trying to revive their own sleepy industries to both sustain weapons deliveries to Kyiv and bolster their own security. Additionally the North Atlantic Treaty Organization wants to boost the size of its so-called high-readiness forces — a pool made up of allies' troops ready to deploy in less than 30 days — to 300,000, a seven-fold increase, all of whom will need high quality weapons ready for use.

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Reported with Natalia Drozdiak and Alexander Pearson.